Energy ·
Eni shares have fallen for a fifth consecutive session amid intensifying speculation that Italy may impose a new windfall tax on the energy giant.
Eni (ENI) has shed ground for five straight sessions as speculation mounts that Rome is preparing a fresh windfall tax targeting the energy major. No formal legislation has been tabled, but Italian media reports point to government discussions around capturing excess profits from elevated energy margins. ENI's stock has underperformed European energy peers (BP, SHEL, TTE) over this stretch, with the five-session decline erasing several weeks of gains.
Windfall tax risk is not new for ENI — Italy levied a similar charge in 2022-23 — but renewed political pressure ahead of budget season amplifies execution and earnings uncertainty. Investors are discounting the probability of a material earnings hit to ENI's already below-peer valuation.
Winners: rival integrated majors absorbing capital rotation out of Italian-listed energy. Losers: ENI shareholders, Italian energy sub-sector.
Key dates: Italy's budget framework presentation (typically autumn) and any official government statements. Watch ENI's next dividend announcement and management commentary on the fiscal risk as near-term sentiment anchors.